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We're in a recession, so what could possibly be more important than understanding how consumer behaviour will be affected? In the 1990s and the first seven and a half years of the 21st century before the crunch the chasm between added value and value for money products was perhaps never wider. Will the current economic situation turn all of that on its head?

A number of observers and players in the supply chain seem to think so. My prediction, though, is that this will be a battle of the middle ground. The ‘haves’ among consumers will continue to seek added value, while the ‘have nots’ will purchase less, look even harder for lowest-cost items and potentially, in consequence, swap suppliers and perhaps purchasing channels. But it is the behaviour of those consumers in between that is more difficult to predict. It is easy to say there will be a mixture of both behaviours, but for which products?

We could ask consumers, but as with most consumer research based purely on questioning it will be subject to all sorts of emotional noise that reflects how people see, or would like to see, themselves rather than their actual behaviour.

Much better to gain insight through physical observation such as eye and hand tracking or scientific techniques such as Kansei engineering to begin to understand how your packaging communicates and influences the consumer in store and in use. This consumer insight can validate or challenge the perceptions that we all have as to how our product and packaging decisions will fare in the new economy prior to launch.

There is no doubt that ‘value’ packaging solutions will grow over the coming months. I hear the woes of packaging suppliers who state that there is nowhere to go – they have ‘leaned’ their operations, reduced our raw materials costs, reduced the amount of air they are transporting and storing. But what about the waste that arises from inclusion of graphics or features which are not actually critical to the purchasing decision of the consumer? Value packaging that captures what consumers actually value is the new challenge for packaging designers and category managers alike.
So grasp the nettle, don’t sink back into only offering and specifying lowest price packaging just because it seems right. Consider how it will affect consumer purchasing behaviour. Measure and validate which features or design elements truly influence the chances of success or failure in the market – and use technology and people who understand how to elicit actions from your consumers.

Greg Wood is managing director of Edge, the UK arm of Swedish print and packaging management consultant STFI-Packforsk. Contact him at greg.wood@stfi-packforsk.eu